Futures market: The most-traded SHFE aluminum 2412 contract opened at 21,650 yuan/mt overnight, with a high of 21,820 yuan/mt, a low of 21,560 yuan/mt, and closed at 21,735 yuan/mt, up 755 yuan/mt from the previous close, an increase of 3.60%. The trading volume was 121,000 lots, and the open interest was 225,000 lots, with a daily reduction of 4,154 lots. On Thursday, LME aluminum opened at $2,615/mt, reached a high of $2,732/mt, a low of $2,614.5/mt, and closed at $2,704.5/mt, up $89.5/mt, an increase of 3.42%.
Summary: On the macro front, the US Fed and the Bank of England cut interest rates again, boosting macro sentiment, leading to a rise in aluminum prices overnight. In the medium and long term, attention should still be paid to global monetary policies and inflation. On the fundamentals side, the recent significant increase in aluminum costs has led some companies to plan for maintenance, but with limited impact on production, and the supply and demand relationship remains relatively stable. Social inventory has been affected by transportation, continuously destocking to below the 600,000 mt mark. Spot alumina supply is tight, coupled with production disruptions from some companies, leading to alumina prices fluctuating upward, providing strong support for aluminum prices on the cost side. Overall, domestic aluminum remains in a state of low inventory and rising costs, and short-term aluminum prices may fluctuate upward.
